A compartmental model for COVID-19 to assess  effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions with  emphasis on contact-based quarantine

Saumen Barua; Bornali Das; Attila Dénes

doi:10.24193/subbmath.2023.3.15

Authors

Saumen Barua Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged
Bornali Das
Attila Dénes

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24193/subbmath.2023.3.15

Keywords:

COVID-19, Compartmental model, Quarantine, Data fitting

Abstract

Relative to the number of casualties, COVID-19 ranks among the ten most devastating plagues in history. The pandemic hit the South Asian nation of Bangladesh in early March 2020 and has greatly impacted the socio-economic status of the country. In this article, we propose a compartmental model for COVID-19 dynamics, introducing a separate class for quarantined susceptibles, synonymous to isolation of individuals who have been exposed and are suspected of being infected. The current model assumes a perfect quarantine based on contact with infectious individuals. Numerical simulation is conducted to investigate the efficiency of disease control by segregating suspected individuals and other non-pharmaceutical interventions. In addition, we assort quantitatively the importance of parameters that influence the dynamics of the system. Fitting the system to the early phase of COVID-19 outbreaks in Bangladesh, by taking into account the cumulative number of cases with the data of the first 17-week period, the basic reproduction number is estimated as 1.69.

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